Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 35.713536 40.365447 45.845476 52.906765 61.968725 73.521245 89.936685
2025-05-11 29.294167 34.942935 42.274723 52.925453 68.885361 93.774976 140.787708
2025-05-18 24.954252 30.840693 39.003510 51.956831 73.978492 115.441491 224.514112
2025-05-25 22.251061 28.274876 37.085344 52.163231 80.992884 147.343307 425.617454
2025-06-01 20.116790 26.091574 35.188007 51.712918 86.638486 184.457273 994.859465
2025-06-08 18.410180 24.256984 33.442270 50.958394 91.339380 228.786044 4636.286346
2025-06-15 17.054966 22.765177 31.974448 50.288360 96.002680 287.001588 NaN
2025-06-22 15.987767 21.588855 30.838294 49.961288 101.559345 373.923127 NaN
2025-06-29 14.949796 20.347708 29.408579 48.664463 103.710055 459.373601 NaN
2025-07-06 14.612911 20.202782 29.897790 51.703425 122.465036 940.391606 NaN
2025-07-13 13.875938 19.319448 28.902273 51.036551 127.577344 1469.020028 NaN
2025-07-20 13.338951 18.727058 28.382254 51.417438 137.822782 3552.033401 NaN
2025-07-27 12.866982 18.217509 27.981043 52.077629 151.014354 54242.008197 NaN
2025-08-03 12.388290 17.659796 27.422556 52.207206 162.434640 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.864069 16.985321 26.559194 51.310447 167.491282 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.481938 16.538005 26.116452 51.536178 180.972205 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 11.080097 16.028956 25.495043 51.105565 190.002651 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.687923 15.514341 24.816214 50.370481 196.378363 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.332096 15.046544 24.198478 49.715366 203.331348 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 10.026558 14.654753 23.712553 49.395450 213.882905 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.676467 14.163491 22.973479 48.123092 213.378562 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.630300 14.233569 23.472258 51.105428 270.888501 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.357090 13.861985 22.951196 50.451323 280.676807 NaN NaN